BAYESIAN PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE FOR EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN.
Keywords:
Bayesian statistics, predictive methods, clinical trials, binomial modelAbstract
The aim of an exploratory clinical trial is to determine whether a new intervention is promising for further testing in confirmatory clinical trials. Most exploratory clinical trials are designed as single-arm trials using a binary outcome with or without interim monitoring for early stopping. In this paper, we are particularly interested in using the predictive Bayesian approach in clinical trials or objectives is the development of important evidence of an effect of interest we offer the procedure based on the notion satisfaction Index is based on the value of p and we are first given the data available to calculate a forecast of future satisfaction data as Bayesian predictive expect this index conditional on past observations. To illustrate the proposed procedure, we proposed the binomial model.Downloads
References
BERRY S. M, CARLIN B.P., LEE J.J, MULLER P. (2011), Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials. Chapman & Hall/CRC biostatistics series.
Christian P, Robert and George Casella, (2004) Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Springer.
Gary Koop, Dale J. Poirier, and Justin L. Tobias, (2007), Bayesian econometric methods.
Lyle D.Broemeling, (2006), Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine. Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Merabet, H (2004) Index and prevision of satisfaction in exponential models for clinical trials. STATISTICA, anno LXIV, n.3, 441-453.
O'.HAGAN A, STEVENS J.W, CAMPBELL M.J.(2005), Assurance in clinical trial design,pharmaceut;Statist,4,187-201.
Shein Chung Chow Mark chang, (2007), Adaptive design methods in clinical trials, Chapman & Hall/CRC biostatistics series.
Steyerberg, E.W. Clinical Prediction Models A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating (2009), XXVIII, 500p, Hardcover.
Ton J Cleophas, Aeilko H Zwinderman, Toine F Cleophas, Statistics Applied to Clinical Trials (2009), 1 vol. (XIX-559 p.): ill.; 25 cm.
Satoshi Teramukai,a, Takashi Daimonb and Sarah Zoharc, (2012), A Bayesian predictive sample size selection design for single-arm exploratory clinical trials, statistics in medicine.
